🧑⚖️ 1. Museveni Aims for Seventh Term
President Yoweri Museveni (age 80) has officially declared his intention to seek another term in office, aiming for re-election in the January 12, 2026 vote .
- He announced via X that he’d like to lead the National Resistance Movement (NRM) into the polls, citing a bold economic ambition: transforming Uganda into a $500 billion economy .
✊ 2. Bobi Wine and Opposition Struggle
Pop star-turned-politician Bobi Wine (Robert Kyagulanyi) is confirmed to run again, vowing to challenge alleged irregularities from past elections and the use of force by state security forces .
- The main opposition parties, including Wine’s National Unity Platform (NUP), have raised alarm about crackdowns, with reports of 2,000 politically-motivated ‘abductions’ since 2021 and excessive force during by-elections.
⚖️ 3. Military Trials & Judicial Court Battles
A new law signed in mid‑June 2025 allows military courts to try civilians, despite a Supreme Court ruling that this practice is unconstitutional.
- Opposition figures like Kizza Besigye and Bobi Wine have faced such tribunals, prompting criticism from human rights groups and legal experts .
🗳️ 4. Voter Register & Electoral Prep
- The Electoral Commission moved the nationwide display of the voter register to April 25–May 15, 2025, with focused windows for youth, elderly, and disability rolls .
- Civil society, including Ushahidi Foundation Uganda, launched the “TOKITYA GENDA OLONDE” civic awareness campaign calling for biometric registration, inclusivity, transparency, and stronger legal frameworks .
🔴 5. Early Turbulence: By‑Elections & Violence
- The March 13 Kawempe North by‑election saw heavy security deployment, reports of journalist assaults, and an NUP victory amidst allegations of voter intimidation and torture by the Joint Anti‑Terrorism Taskforce .
- Civil society warns this could foreshadow the political violence expected in the January polls .
💸 6. Budget & Timing Concerns
- Criticism has emerged over severe funding shortfalls—the EC requested ₤764.7 billion UGX but got only ₤140 billion UGX allocated, risking the integrity of logistical preparations .
- Additionally, LC1 (village) & women council elections slated for 2023 were postponed again—now re-scheduled to coincide with the 2026 general elections .
🔍 Summary & Implications
Key Issue | Implication |
---|---|
Museveni’s seventh bid | Continues EIU concerns over democratic entrenchment |
Opposition repression | Heightened fear of intimidation and violence |
Military tribunals | Signals rollback of judicial independence |
Voter register & budget gaps | Social trust at risk; election readiness in doubt |
Early by‑election chaos | Potential blueprint for January 2026 |